Allan Nascimento vs Carlos Hernandez

January 13, 2023

Flyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1052
(+42)
Allan Nascimento
Winner: Allan Nascimento
Submission
Round 1 • 3:16

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Allan Nascimento+42
Carlos Hernandez-37
989
(-37)
Carlos Hernandez

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +33Carlos Hernandez: -33

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Total UFC Fights32
Experience Gap1-1
Experience ELO1 040988
ELO Change+33-33
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +22Carlos Hernandez: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 024999
ELO Change+22-22
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +65Carlos Hernandez: -39

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:163:16
Win Type ELO1 099972
ELO Change+65-39
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What Happened

Allan Nascimento earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:16, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +46Carlos Hernandez: -46

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Significant Strikes Landed63
Significant Strikes Attempted117
Total Strikes Landed93
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 065976
ELO Change+46-46
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What Happened

Allan Nascimento slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 54.5% vs 42.9% accuracy. Allan Nascimento capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +90Carlos Hernandez: -90

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted40
Ground Control Time2:230:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 097975
ELO Change+90-90
💡

What Happened

Allan Nascimento controlled Carlos Hernandez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:23 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +27Carlos Hernandez: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Days Since Last Fight246322
Activity ELO1 035999
ELO Change+27-22
💡

What Happened

Allan Nascimento demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Allan Nascimento capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Hernandez's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +27Carlos Hernandez: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 0311 001
ELO Change+27-22
💡

What Happened

Allan Nascimento extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Allan Nascimento: +22Carlos Hernandez: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricAllan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez
Weight ClassFlyweightFlyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 024999
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.