January 13, 2023
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:16 | 3:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 099 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -39 |
Allan Nascimento earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:16, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 065 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Allan Nascimento slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 54.5% vs 42.9% accuracy. Allan Nascimento capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:23 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 097 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -90 |
Allan Nascimento controlled Carlos Hernandez on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:23 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 322 |
| Activity ELO | 1 035 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Allan Nascimento demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Allan Nascimento capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Hernandez's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Allan Nascimento extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Carlos Hernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

