May 31, 2025
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -22 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 144 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Allan Nascimento earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Jafel Filho lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Allan Nascimento's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:03 | 6:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 123 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Allan Nascimento did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jafel Filho on the ground with 1 takedown, 7:03 of control time, 2 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 869 | 442 |
| Activity ELO | 1 055 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -22 |
Allan Nascimento demonstrated extended layoff with 869 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Allan Nascimento capitalized on this activity level, while Jafel Filho's 442-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 058 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Allan Nascimento extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jafel Filho is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Allan Nascimento | Jafel Filho |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 045 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.