July 15, 2014
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 974 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
John Lineker's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Lineker for the expected result. Had Alptekin Ozkilic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:51 | 4:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 947 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +43 |
John Lineker gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 133 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 230 | 327 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 94 | 134 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 947 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
John Lineker controlled the striking exchanges with 134 vs 94 total strikes, 133 vs 88 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. John Lineker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:55 | 0:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 952 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
John Lineker landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 165 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +25 |
John Lineker demonstrated solid activity levels with 165 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, John Lineker capitalized on this activity level, while Alptekin Ozkilic's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
John Lineker started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alptekin Ozkilic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alptekin Ozkilic | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.