June 28, 2025
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Jhonata Diniz's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jhonata Diniz for the expected result. Had Alvin Hines pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 972 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Jhonata Diniz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 112 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 259 | 182 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 83 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Jhonata Diniz controlled the striking exchanges with 112 vs 83 total strikes, 112 vs 82 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 31.7% accuracy. Jhonata Diniz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 983 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Jhonata Diniz demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jhonata Diniz capitalized on this activity level, while Alvin Hines's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Jhonata Diniz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alvin Hines is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alvin Hines | Jhonata Diniz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

