July 6, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Kenny Florian's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kenny Florian for the expected result. Had Alvin Robinson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:30 | 4:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 973 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +59 |
Kenny Florian earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 944 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Kenny Florian controlled the striking exchanges with 51 vs 15 total strikes, 20 vs 6 significant strikes, 62.5% vs 37.5% accuracy. Kenny Florian capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 2:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 964 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Kenny Florian controlled Alvin Robinson on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 2:22 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 93 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +36 |
Kenny Florian demonstrated solid activity levels with 93 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kenny Florian capitalized on this activity level, while Alvin Robinson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +21 |
Kenny Florian extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alvin Robinson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Kenny Florian |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

