January 22, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 998 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:39 | 3:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +49 |
Nate Diaz earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 003 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Nate Diaz edged the striking exchanges with 25 vs 5 total strikes. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:57 | 2:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Nate Diaz controlled Alvin Robinson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 96 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 030 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +38 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 127 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Alvin Robinson's 96-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Nate Diaz extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Alvin Robinson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Alvin Robinson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.