May 13, 2022
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 134 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Katlyn Cerminara's 8-fight experience advantage (15 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Katlyn Cerminara for the expected result. Had Amanda Ribas pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 194 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Katlyn Cerminara receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 63 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 169 | 222 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 075 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Katlyn Cerminara edged the striking exchanges with 63 vs 55 significant strikes. Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:49 | 0:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 241 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Katlyn Cerminara did not secure a significant ground advantage against Amanda Ribas on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 196 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 140 | 1 332 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +31 |
Katlyn Cerminara demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Katlyn Cerminara capitalized on this activity level, while Amanda Ribas's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 081 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Katlyn Cerminara extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Amanda Ribas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Katlyn Cerminara |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 057 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

