January 11, 2025
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 106 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Mackenzie Dern's 3-fight experience advantage (15 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mackenzie Dern for the expected result. Had Amanda Ribas pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:56 | 4:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 166 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +66 |
Mackenzie Dern earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:56, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Amanda Ribas was submitted.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 99 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 108 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Mackenzie Dern edged the striking exchanges with 27 vs 17 significant strikes, 58.7% vs 30.4% accuracy. Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:47 | 4:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 187 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +63 |
Mackenzie Dern controlled Amanda Ribas on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:34 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 295 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 137 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +30 |
Mackenzie Dern demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mackenzie Dern capitalized on this activity level, while Amanda Ribas's 295-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Mackenzie Dern extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Amanda Ribas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Mackenzie Dern |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.