March 22, 2024
Women's Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 136 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Rose Namajunas's 4-fight experience advantage (15 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rose Namajunas for the expected result. Had Amanda Ribas pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 210 | 1 388 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Rose Namajunas earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 83 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 270 | 188 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 137 | 169 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 148 | 1 356 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Rose Namajunas controlled the striking exchanges with 169 vs 137 total strikes, 93 vs 83 significant strikes, 49.5% vs 30.7% accuracy. Rose Namajunas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:38 | 6:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 250 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Rose Namajunas edged out Amanda Ribas on the ground with 1 takedown, 6:59 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 154 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Rose Namajunas demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rose Namajunas capitalized on this activity level, while Amanda Ribas's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Rose Namajunas started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Amanda Ribas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Amanda Ribas | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.