June 10, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 042 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Jake Matthews's 12-fight experience advantage (16 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jake Matthews for the expected result. Had Andre Fialho pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 010 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:24 | 2:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 150 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +79 |
Jake Matthews gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 067 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -105 | +105 |
Jake Matthews controlled the striking exchanges with 47 vs 19 total strikes, 47 vs 18 significant strikes, 52.8% vs 35.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jake Matthews capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 051 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 35 | 462 |
| Activity ELO | 1 162 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +18 |
Jake Matthews demonstrated extended layoff with 462 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Jake Matthews capitalized on this activity level, while Andre Fialho's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 018 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Jake Matthews started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andre Fialho is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Jake Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 010 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

