May 19, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 995 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Joaquin Buckley's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joaquin Buckley for the expected result. Had Andre Fialho pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 974 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:15 | 4:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 078 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +89 |
Joaquin Buckley gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 945 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Joaquin Buckley controlled the striking exchanges with 29.2% vs 43.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 975 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Joaquin Buckley edged out Andre Fialho on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:23 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 161 |
| Activity ELO | 1 123 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +35 |
Joaquin Buckley demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joaquin Buckley capitalized on this activity level, while Andre Fialho's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Joaquin Buckley started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andre Fialho is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Joaquin Buckley |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 974 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

