September 22, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 28 |
| Experience Gap | -21 | 21 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tim Means's 21-fight experience advantage (28 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had Andre Fialho pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 956 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:15 | 1:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 053 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +49 |
Tim Means gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 104 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 143 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 134 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 876 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Tim Means dominated the striking exchanges with 134 vs 56 total strikes, 104 vs 51 significant strikes, 72.7% vs 49.5% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 2:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 18 |
| Ground ELO | 934 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Tim Means controlled Andre Fialho on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:51 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 107 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +32 |
Tim Means demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Andre Fialho's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 969 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Tim Means started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andre Fialho is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Fialho | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 956 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

