December 15, 2023
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Andre Fili's 18-fight experience advantage (21 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andre Fili for the expected result. Had Lucas Almeida pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:32 | 3:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 156 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -39 |
Andre Fili earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:32, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 092 | 889 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -113 |
Andre Fili controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 10 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Andre Fili capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 040 | 900 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Andre Fili landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 190 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -12 |
Andre Fili demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andre Fili capitalized on this activity level, while Lucas Almeida's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Andre Fili started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Lucas Almeida is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Fili | Lucas Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.