February 24, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 219 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Brendan Allen's 5-fight experience advantage (11 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brendan Allen for the expected result. Had Andre Muniz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 087 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:25 | 4:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 329 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +67 |
Brendan Allen earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:25, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Andre Muniz was submitted.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 197 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Brendan Allen edged the striking exchanges. Brendan Allen capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:15 | 4:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 194 | 1 444 |
| ELO Change | -164 | +164 |
Brendan Allen dominated Andre Muniz on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:12 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 140 | 1 313 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +27 |
Brendan Allen demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brendan Allen capitalized on this activity level, while Andre Muniz's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 134 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +30 |
Brendan Allen extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andre Muniz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Brendan Allen |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 086 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.