July 21, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 179 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Paul Craig's 9-fight experience advantage (16 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Paul Craig for the expected result. Had Andre Muniz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:40 | 4:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 288 | 1 420 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +84 |
Paul Craig gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 31 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 107 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Paul Craig controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 31 total strikes, 40 vs 24 significant strikes, 48.8% vs 60.0% accuracy. Paul Craig capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:47 | 2:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 30 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Paul Craig controlled Andre Muniz on the ground with 2 takedowns, 2:56 of control time, 30 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 120 | 1 183 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Paul Craig demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Paul Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Andre Muniz's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 110 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +27 |
Paul Craig started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andre Muniz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Muniz | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 062 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

