July 12, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 135 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Andre Petroski's 2-fight experience advantage (8 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andre Petroski for the expected result. Had Josh Fremd pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 161 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Andre Petroski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 972 | 936 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Josh Fremd controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (60 vs 30 total strikes). However, since Josh Fremd lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Andre Petroski's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:50 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 196 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Andre Petroski controlled Josh Fremd on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 12:50 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 146 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -16 |
Andre Petroski demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andre Petroski capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Fremd's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 102 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Andre Petroski started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Fremd is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Petroski | Josh Fremd |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.