November 12, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 998 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Dennis Siver's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dennis Siver for the expected result. Had Andre Winner pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:37 | 3:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 032 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +42 |
Dennis Siver earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 44 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 047 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Dennis Siver controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 13 total strikes, 30 vs 13 significant strikes, 42.3% vs 29.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dennis Siver capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 906 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -96 | +96 |
Dennis Siver dominated Andre Winner on the ground with 0:35 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 78 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +30 |
Dennis Siver demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dennis Siver capitalized on this activity level, while Andre Winner's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +22 |
Dennis Siver extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andre Winner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Dennis Siver |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

