March 30, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 045 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 101 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Andre Winner earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 198 | 146 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Andre Winner edged the striking exchanges with 61 vs 52 significant strikes. Andre Winner capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 1:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 099 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Andre Winner controlled Rafaello Oliveira on the ground with 0:42 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | 88 |
| Activity ELO | 1 067 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -22 |
Andre Winner demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andre Winner capitalized on this activity level, while Rafaello Oliveira's 88-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Andre Winner extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafaello Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andre Winner | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.