March 1, 2025
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 929 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
JJ Aldrich's 2-fight experience advantage (16 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding JJ Aldrich for the expected result. Had Andrea Lee pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 929 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 033 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
JJ Aldrich earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 175 | 137 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 66 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 995 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
JJ Aldrich controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 53 significant strikes, 54.0% vs 30.3% accuracy. JJ Aldrich capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:46 | 1:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 939 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
JJ Aldrich controlled Andrea Lee on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 1:20 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 267 | 295 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
JJ Aldrich demonstrated standard activity with 295 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, JJ Aldrich capitalized on this activity level, while Andrea Lee's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 948 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +17 |
JJ Aldrich started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrea Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | JJ Aldrich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 929 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.