February 7, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 041 | 973 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Lauren Murphy's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lauren Murphy for the expected result. Had Andrea Lee pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 107 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Lauren Murphy receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 104 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 267 | 197 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 107 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 075 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Andrea Lee controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (104 vs 80). However, since Andrea Lee lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Lauren Murphy's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 2:31 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 049 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Lauren Murphy edged out Andrea Lee on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:31 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 039 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +32 |
Lauren Murphy demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Lauren Murphy capitalized on this activity level, while Andrea Lee's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +29 |
Lauren Murphy extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrea Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Lauren Murphy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 014 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.