September 11, 2020
Women's Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 002 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Roxanne Modafferi's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roxanne Modafferi for the expected result. Had Andrea Lee pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 991 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 052 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Roxanne Modafferi earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 97 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 189 | 169 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 118 | 129 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Andrea Lee controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (97 vs 60), superior accuracy (51.3% vs 35.5%). However, since Andrea Lee lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Roxanne Modafferi's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 4:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 985 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Roxanne Modafferi controlled Andrea Lee on the ground with 4 vs 3 takedowns, 4:49 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 016 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +70 |
Roxanne Modafferi demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since her last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Roxanne Modafferi capitalized on this activity level, while Andrea Lee's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Roxanne Modafferi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrea Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrea Lee | Roxanne Modafferi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 991 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.