December 9, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 951 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Santiago Ponzinibbio for the expected result. Had Andreas Stahl pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:25 | 4:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 929 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +61 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 855 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -123 | +123 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 14 total strikes, 48 vs 14 significant strikes, 62.3% vs 41.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Santiago Ponzinibbio capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 938 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 503 | 167 |
| Activity ELO | 961 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +32 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio demonstrated solid activity levels with 167 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Santiago Ponzinibbio capitalized on this activity level, while Andreas Stahl's 503-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andreas Stahl is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andreas Stahl | Santiago Ponzinibbio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

