April 26, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 27 | -27 |
| Experience ELO | 1 044 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +90 |
Augusto Sakai overcame a 27-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 29 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Andrei Arlovski.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 234 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Augusto Sakai receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 75 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 175 | 132 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 048 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (82 vs 51 total strikes), significant strike advantage (75 vs 42), superior accuracy (42.9% vs 31.8%). However, since Andrei Arlovski lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Augusto Sakai's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:26 | 2:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 940 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Augusto Sakai did not secure a significant ground advantage against Andrei Arlovski on the ground with 2:01 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +38 |
Augusto Sakai demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Augusto Sakai capitalized on this activity level, while Andrei Arlovski's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 101 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +33 |
Augusto Sakai extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrei Arlovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 027 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.