July 19, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 30 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Andrei Arlovski's 18-fight experience advantage (30 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Ben Rothwell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 291 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Andrei Arlovski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 152 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 263 | 177 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 160 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 111 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Andrei Arlovski dominated the striking exchanges with 160 vs 75 total strikes, 152 vs 70 significant strikes, 57.8% vs 39.5% accuracy. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:51 | 2:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 972 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Andrei Arlovski did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ben Rothwell on the ground with 0:51 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 215 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -17 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Ben Rothwell's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 123 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Andrei Arlovski started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ben Rothwell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.