June 13, 2014
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 188 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Andrei Arlovski's 5-fight experience advantage (15 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Brendan Schaub pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 171 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 466 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Andrei Arlovski receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 451 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
Brendan Schaub controlled the striking through superior volume (65 vs 40 total strikes), significant strike advantage (30 vs 12), superior accuracy (34.1% vs 21.8%). However, since Brendan Schaub lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Andrei Arlovski's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:10 | 3:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 225 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Andrei Arlovski did not secure a significant ground advantage against Brendan Schaub on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:10 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 2 296 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 220 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated extended layoff with 2296 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Brendan Schaub's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 194 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -16 |
Andrei Arlovski extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brendan Schaub is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 134 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.