October 15, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 36 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 31 | -31 |
| Experience ELO | 1 127 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Andrei Arlovski's 31-fight experience advantage (36 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Carlos Felipe pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 095 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 275 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Andrei Arlovski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 83 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 172 | 172 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 84 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 103 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Andrei Arlovski edged the striking exchanges with 83 vs 73 significant strikes. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 005 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Andrei Arlovski did not secure a significant ground advantage against Carlos Felipe on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 275 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Carlos Felipe's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 144 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Andrei Arlovski extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carlos Felipe is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 080 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.