April 20, 2007
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Andrei Arlovski's 12-fight experience advantage (13 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Fabricio Werdum pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 139 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 432 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Andrei Arlovski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 81 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 416 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled the striking exchanges with 28 vs 23 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:37 | 0:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 171 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Andrei Arlovski landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 186 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -12 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Fabricio Werdum's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 150 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Andrei Arlovski extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fabricio Werdum is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 097 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.