April 29, 2022
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 38 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 27 | -27 |
| Experience ELO | 1 164 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Andrei Arlovski's 27-fight experience advantage (38 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Jake Collier pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Andrei Arlovski receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 91 | 93 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 188 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 105 | 132 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 126 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Jake Collier controlled the striking through superior volume (132 vs 105 total strikes). However, since Jake Collier lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Andrei Arlovski's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 3:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 051 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Andrei Arlovski did not secure a significant ground advantage against Jake Collier on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 317 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -9 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Jake Collier's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 177 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -12 |
Andrei Arlovski extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake Collier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 110 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.