February 29, 2008
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 159 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Andrei Arlovski's 10-fight experience advantage (14 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Jake O'Brien pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 155 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:17 | 4:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 460 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Andrei Arlovski gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 446 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Andrei Arlovski edged the striking exchanges with 14 vs 4 significant strikes. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 14 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 4:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 206 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Andrei Arlovski slightly outworked Jake O'Brien on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:59 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 316 | 401 |
| Activity ELO | 1 203 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated standard activity with 316 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Jake O'Brien's 401-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 171 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -16 |
Andrei Arlovski extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake O'Brien is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 116 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.