September 2, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 163 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +62 |
Josh Barnett overcame a 11-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Andrei Arlovski.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 139 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:53 | 2:53 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 445 | 1 465 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +84 |
Josh Barnett earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:53, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Andrei Arlovski was submitted.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 82 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 112 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 306 | 1 334 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Josh Barnett dominated the striking exchanges with 112 vs 51 total strikes, 53 vs 38 significant strikes. Josh Barnett capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:22 | 6:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 25 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -154 | +154 |
Josh Barnett dominated Andrei Arlovski on the ground with 1 takedown, 6:32 of control time, 25 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 118 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 233 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +34 |
Josh Barnett demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Barnett capitalized on this activity level, while Andrei Arlovski's 118-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 205 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +32 |
Josh Barnett started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrei Arlovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 107 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.