December 29, 2006
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Andrei Arlovski's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Marcio Cruz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 125 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 425 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -23 |
Andrei Arlovski earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 406 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 0 total strikes, 7 vs 0 significant strikes, 63.6% vs 0.0% accuracy. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:23 | 0:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 138 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled Marcio Cruz on the ground with 1:23 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -17 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Marcio Cruz's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 134 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -16 |
Andrei Arlovski started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcio Cruz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.