October 28, 2022
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 39 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | 24 | -24 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +107 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima overcame a 24-fight experience disadvantage (15 vs 39 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Andrei Arlovski.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 098 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:50 | 1:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 242 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +78 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 073 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled the striking exchanges with 25 vs 3 total strikes, 54.5% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 938 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -113 | +113 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima dominated Andrei Arlovski on the ground with 1:30 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 284 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +57 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Andrei Arlovski's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 149 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +31 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrei Arlovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.