March 21, 2002
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 936 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Pedro Rizzo's 7-fight experience advantage (10 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Pedro Rizzo for the expected result. Had Andrei Arlovski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:45 | 1:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 023 | 1 340 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +29 |
Pedro Rizzo gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 38 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 938 | 1 307 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (38 vs 27). However, since Andrei Arlovski lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Pedro Rizzo's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 946 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 267 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +16 |
Pedro Rizzo demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Pedro Rizzo capitalized on this activity level, while Andrei Arlovski's 267-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Pedro Rizzo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrei Arlovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.