May 12, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 32 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 31 | -31 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Andrei Arlovski's 31-fight experience advantage (32 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Philipe Lins pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Andrei Arlovski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 062 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Andrei Arlovski edged the striking exchanges with 50 vs 41 significant strikes. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 981 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 193 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 198 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -11 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated standard activity with 193 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Philipe Lins's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 114 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -15 |
Andrei Arlovski started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Philipe Lins is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.