March 2, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 149 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Andrei Arlovski's 5-fight experience advantage (25 vs 20 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Andrei Arlovski for the expected result. Had Stefan Struve pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 124 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 376 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Andrei Arlovski earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 88 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 76 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 179 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled the striking exchanges with 76 vs 37 total strikes, 46 vs 34 significant strikes. Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:31 | 1:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 034 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -68 |
Andrei Arlovski controlled Stefan Struve on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 4:31 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 200 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -22 |
Andrei Arlovski demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andrei Arlovski capitalized on this activity level, while Stefan Struve's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 185 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -17 |
Andrei Arlovski extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Stefan Struve is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 099 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.