February 19, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 34 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 31 | -31 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +99 |
Tom Aspinall overcame a 31-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 34 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Andrei Arlovski.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 060 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:09 | 1:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 234 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +83 |
Tom Aspinall earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:09, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Andrei Arlovski was submitted.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 60 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 062 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Tom Aspinall controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 20 significant strikes, 61.7% vs 36.4% accuracy. Tom Aspinall capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Tom Aspinall controlled Andrei Arlovski on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:17 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 203 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +59 |
Tom Aspinall demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tom Aspinall capitalized on this activity level, while Andrei Arlovski's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +34 |
Tom Aspinall extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrei Arlovski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.