October 25, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 093 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +50 |
Luke Barnatt overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Andrew Craig.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:12 | 2:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 059 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +78 |
Luke Barnatt earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:12, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Andrew Craig was submitted.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 108 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 011 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -126 | +126 |
Luke Barnatt dominated the striking exchanges with 39 vs 26 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Luke Barnatt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 945 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -137 | +137 |
Luke Barnatt dominated Andrew Craig on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:46 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 075 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +32 |
Luke Barnatt demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Luke Barnatt capitalized on this activity level, while Andrew Craig's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Luke Barnatt extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrew Craig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Luke Barnatt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.