July 10, 2012
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -28 |
Andrew Craig overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafael Natal.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 044 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:52 | 4:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 146 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -41 |
Andrew Craig gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 129 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -82 |
Rafael Natal controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (79 vs 30 total strikes), significant strike advantage (73 vs 23), superior accuracy (67.0% vs 31.9%), 2 knockdowns. However, since Rafael Natal lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Andrew Craig's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:50 | 1:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 071 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Andrew Craig landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 131 | 158 |
| Activity ELO | 1 069 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -22 |
Andrew Craig demonstrated solid activity levels with 131 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Andrew Craig capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Natal's 158-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Andrew Craig extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Natal is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrew Craig | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.