September 1, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 020 | 964 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +47 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:28 | 4:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 904 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +103 |
Thibault Gouti earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 86 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 738 | 890 |
| ELO Change | -135 | +135 |
Thibault Gouti controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 22 total strikes, 41 vs 22 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Thibault Gouti capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 918 | 892 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
Thibault Gouti landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 371 |
| Activity ELO | 1 010 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +24 |
Thibault Gouti demonstrated extended layoff with 371 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Thibault Gouti capitalized on this activity level, while Andrew Holbrook's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Thibault Gouti started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrew Holbrook is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrew Holbrook | Thibault Gouti |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.