April 14, 2017
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Anthony Smith's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Smith for the expected result. Had Andrew Sanchez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:52 | 3:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 045 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +92 |
Anthony Smith gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 104 | 100 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -88 | +88 |
Andrew Sanchez controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (104 vs 58 total strikes), significant strike advantage (63 vs 49), superior accuracy (60.6% vs 49.0%). However, since Andrew Sanchez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Anthony Smith's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:34 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 093 | 968 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Anthony Smith landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +47 |
Anthony Smith demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Smith capitalized on this activity level, while Andrew Sanchez's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 026 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +28 |
Anthony Smith extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andrew Sanchez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andrew Sanchez | Anthony Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

