February 14, 2014
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 955 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Charles Oliveira's 6-fight experience advantage (10 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Andy Ogle pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:40 | 2:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 966 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +35 |
Charles Oliveira earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:40, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Andy Ogle was submitted.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 49 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Charles Oliveira edged the striking exchanges with 57 vs 34 total strikes, 53.5% vs 42.9% accuracy. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:29 | 6:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 952 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Charles Oliveira dominated Andy Ogle on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 6:09 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | 225 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated standard activity with 225 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Andy Ogle's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 962 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Charles Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Andy Ogle is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Andy Ogle | Charles Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.