February 15, 2025
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 23 | -23 |
| Experience ELO | 1 084 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Angela Hill's 23-fight experience advantage (27 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Angela Hill for the expected result. Had Ketlen Souza pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 033 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 147 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Angela Hill receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 86 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 158 | 138 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 103 | 77 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 069 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Angela Hill controlled the striking exchanges with 103 vs 77 total strikes, 86 vs 70 significant strikes. Angela Hill capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:31 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 252 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Angela Hill controlled Ketlen Souza on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:31 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 224 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -12 |
Angela Hill demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Angela Hill capitalized on this activity level, while Ketlen Souza's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 063 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Angela Hill started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ketlen Souza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Angela Hill | Ketlen Souza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.