April 5, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 942 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Josh Koscheck's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Koscheck for the expected result. Had Ansar Chalangov pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:29 | 3:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 930 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +38 |
Josh Koscheck earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 4 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 883 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Ansar Chalangov controlled the striking through superior accuracy (50.0% vs 18.2%). However, since Ansar Chalangov lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Koscheck's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:08 | 2:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 856 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Josh Koscheck dominated Ansar Chalangov on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:45 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 138 | 185 |
| Activity ELO | 961 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Josh Koscheck demonstrated standard activity with 185 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Koscheck capitalized on this activity level, while Ansar Chalangov's 138-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Josh Koscheck started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ansar Chalangov is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ansar Chalangov | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

