October 20, 2023
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 982 | 971 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Mike Breeden's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mike Breeden for the expected result. Had Anshul Jubli pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 995 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:00 | 3:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 025 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +123 |
Mike Breeden gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 103 | 92 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 194 | 177 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 94 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 939 |
| ELO Change | -141 | +141 |
Anshul Jubli controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (103 vs 92). However, since Anshul Jubli lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Mike Breeden's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 003 | 935 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 996 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +76 |
Mike Breeden demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Mike Breeden capitalized on this activity level, while Anshul Jubli's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 972 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +28 |
Mike Breeden started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anshul Jubli is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anshul Jubli | Mike Breeden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 995 | 967 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

