May 15, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Kevin Holland's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Holland for the expected result. Had Anthony Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 991 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +105 |
Kevin Holland secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:39 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 868 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -131 | +131 |
Kevin Holland controlled the striking exchanges with 14 vs 0 significant strikes, 77.8% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kevin Holland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 102 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Kevin Holland landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 992 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Kevin Holland demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kevin Holland capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Hernandez's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Kevin Holland started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.