February 1, 2019
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Markus Perez's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Markus Perez for the expected result. Had Anthony Hernandez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:07 | 1:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +67 |
Markus Perez earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:07, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Anthony Hernandez was submitted.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Anthony Hernandez lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Markus Perez's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:38 | 2:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Markus Perez controlled Anthony Hernandez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:39 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
Markus Perez demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Markus Perez capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Hernandez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Markus Perez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Hernandez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Hernandez | Markus Perez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.