September 30, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 151 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Anthony Johnson's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Johnson for the expected result. Had Charlie Brenneman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 083 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:49 | 2:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 371 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -19 |
Anthony Johnson earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:49, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 2 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 403 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -52 |
Anthony Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 38 vs 1 total strikes, 16 vs 1 significant strikes, 80.0% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:14 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 249 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Anthony Johnson landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 97 |
| Activity ELO | 1 211 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -15 |
Anthony Johnson demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Charlie Brenneman's 97-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 108 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Anthony Johnson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Charlie Brenneman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Charlie Brenneman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 083 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.