March 25, 2011
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 123 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Anthony Johnson's 2-fight experience advantage (9 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Johnson for the expected result. Had Dan Hardy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 327 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Anthony Johnson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 36 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 107 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 351 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Anthony Johnson dominated the striking exchanges with 107 vs 10 total strikes, 20 vs 2 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 15.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 179 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +122 | -122 |
Anthony Johnson landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 490 | 162 |
| Activity ELO | 1 192 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Anthony Johnson demonstrated extended layoff with 490 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Hardy's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 084 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Anthony Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Hardy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

