November 20, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 085 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Josh Koscheck's 8-fight experience advantage (16 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Koscheck for the expected result. Had Anthony Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:47 | 4:47 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 301 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +66 |
Josh Koscheck earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:47, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Anthony Johnson was submitted.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 72 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 291 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Josh Koscheck edged the striking exchanges with 40 vs 17 total strikes, 35.8% vs 22.2% accuracy. Josh Koscheck capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 3:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 057 | 1 362 |
| ELO Change | -100 | +100 |
Josh Koscheck dominated Anthony Johnson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:59 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 29 | 64 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +45 |
Josh Koscheck demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 64 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Josh Koscheck capitalized on this activity level, while Anthony Johnson's 29-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Josh Koscheck extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Anthony Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Josh Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.