December 12, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 056 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Anthony Johnson's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Anthony Johnson for the expected result. Had Kevin Burns pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 018 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:28 | 0:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 208 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +104 | -52 |
Anthony Johnson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 64 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 109 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 206 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +109 | -109 |
Anthony Johnson dominated the striking exchanges with 109 vs 39 total strikes, 35 vs 17 significant strikes, 54.7% vs 37.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Anthony Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:29 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +115 | -115 |
Anthony Johnson landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 148 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 059 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -28 |
Anthony Johnson demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Anthony Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Burns's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -24 |
Anthony Johnson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Burns is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Anthony Johnson | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 018 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

